It all comes down to this.
Ohio State. Notre Dame. A chance to win a College Football Playoff national championship.
The Buckeyes‘ last title came in 2014. The Fighting Irish? 1988.
One of these storied programs will get to hang another banner following Monday’s title game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta (7:30 p.m., ESPN).
Despite Notre Dame being seeded ahead Ohio State (No. 7 vs. No. 8), the Buckeyes are an 8.5-point favorite according to most oddsmakers. Ohio State (13-2) has earned that respect with blowout wins over No. 9 Tennessee and No. 1 Oregon in the first two rounds, then a 28-14 victory against No. 5 Texas in the semifinal.
The Irish (14-1) have ground out three wins on their path to the final: 27-17 against No. 10 Indiana, 23-10 over No. 2 Georgia and a thrilling 27-24 conquering of No. 6 Penn State.
What will it take to decide the winner of the inaugural 12-team playoff format? Here are three keys that could decide it, plus South Bend Tribune staff predictions.
Notre Dame’s cornerbacks against Ohio State’s wide receivers
It’s no secret Notre Dame loves playing man coverage on defense. This puts pressure on cornerbacks Leonard Moore and Christian Gray, but the duo have been up to the task this postseason, highlighted by zero receptions from Penn State wide receivers in the Orange Bowl.
This is easily the biggest challenge the Irish secondary has faced all season. Freshman Jeremiah Smith is one of the best wideouts in the country, evidenced by his 71 catches, 1,227 yards and 14 touchdowns. He torched Tennessee and Oregon, combining for 300 yards and four scores.
Smith is joined by senior Emeka Egbuka (947 yards, 10 touchdowns) to form a dynamic receiving duo. Sophomore Carnell Tate is also a factor with 698 yards and four receiving scores.
Will Moore and Gray be able to hold up against elite talent? Safeties Xavier Watts and Adon Shuler, along with nickel cornerback Jordan Clark, will have to help to combat the Buckeyes’ skill in the passing game.
The health of Notre Dame
It’s been a big topic all season. From losing projected starting left tackle Charles Jagusah during fall camp to losing his replacement, Anthonie Knapp, against Penn State, the injury bug has bitten Notre Dame hard.
With Knapp out, either Jagusah ― who played his first snaps of the season last week ― or senior Tosh Baker will start at left tackle. Another offensive lineman, Rocco Spindler, is battling injury as well, and was listed as the starting right guard on the depth chart.
The status of running back Jeremiyah Love and wide receiver Beaux Collins is also uncertain. Love has not missed time with a right knee injury but has been severely limited. Collins did not play much against Penn State.
Seven Irish starters from the opener at Texas A&M are unavailable Monday. Will this war of attrition finally catch up to the Irish?
Can Notre Dame play like how Michigan did against Ohio State?
Most Notre Dame fans don’t ever want to be compared to Michigan, but this would be a rare time they’re OK with it.
The last loss suffered by Ohio State was a 13-10 upset to its rival Michigan Nov. 30. The Wolverines dictated the pace and physicality, winning the time of possession battle by seven minutes. They had 172 rushing yards compared to 77 for the Buckeyes and forced Ohio State quarterback Will Howard into two bad interceptions.
This is the type of game Notre Dame will probably need to play to win. The Buckeyes love their high-flying offense with stars everywhere. If the Irish can make this a proverbial rock fight, there’s a good chance they’ll still be in it by the fourth quarter. That’s all you can ask for at that point, right?
South Bend Tribune staff predictions for Notre Dame vs. Ohio State CFP championship game
MIKE BERARDINO: Notre Dame 33, Ohio State 27 (2OT). Riley Leonard is right: culture wins.
TOM NOIE: Notre Dame 17, Ohio State 16. Everything about this one says to pick the Buckeyes, something the Irish will use for motivation to exorcise their Ohio State demons and do something that hasn’t been done since 1988. For this Notre Dame team, it’s time.
AUSTIN HOUGH: Ohio State 31, Notre Dame 20. It’s been a remarkable year for Notre Dame. The Buckeyes just have too much talent and will pull away late. There is more optimism with the future of the Irish program with its performance Monday, though, than after the 2013 national title game.