The 2025 BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells is shaping up to be one of the most intriguing tournaments of the season, with the draw setting up a tantalizing path for two of the biggest names in women’s tennis—world No. 1 Iga Świątek and reigning US Open champion Coco Gauff. Given the way the bracket has unfolded, some are questioning whether the draw has been strategically designed to maximize excitement, potentially setting up a dream final between the sport’s brightest young stars.
Świątek’s Road to the Final: A True Test or Favorable Route?
As the top seed, Iga Świątek will open her campaign against a qualifier or a lower-ranked player in the second round, a standard advantage for high seeds. However, from the third round onward, things get significantly tougher.
- Potential Third Round: Świątek could face a resurgent Emma Raducanu or another dangerous unseeded floater. While Raducanu hasn’t been the same since her US Open triumph, her game thrives on hard courts, and she has the potential to cause an upset.
- Likely Fourth Round: A showdown against Madison Keys or Victoria Azarenka looms, both of whom have the power and experience to trouble the world No. 1. Keys’ aggressive baseline game could test Świątek’s movement, while Azarenka’s two-time champion status at Indian Wells proves she knows how to win in the desert.
- Quarterfinals: This is where things get interesting. If the draw holds, Świątek would meet either Maria Sakkari or Jelena Ostapenko, two players who have historically troubled her. Ostapenko, in particular, boasts a winning record against the Pole and possesses the kind of relentless aggression that can disrupt her rhythm.
- Semifinals: A likely clash with Aryna Sabalenka or Elena Rybakina—the only two players who consistently challenge her dominance—could be a blockbuster. Sabalenka’s raw power or Rybakina’s controlled aggression would provide the sternest test before a potential final against Gauff.
Świątek’s path is by no means easy, but it also doesn’t feature any early-round traps. With the form she has displayed over the past year, she remains the favorite to reach the final, but the presence of heavy hitters in her quarter could make for an intriguing battle.
Gauff’s Path: Favorable or Designed for Maximum Drama?
As the third seed, Coco Gauff lands in the opposite half of the draw, making a final against Świątek a very real possibility. However, her potential path raises some eyebrows, as it appears to be one that maximizes her chances of a deep run while still injecting enough uncertainty to create drama.
- Potential Third Round: Gauff could face a tricky opponent in Petra Martic or Sorana Cirstea—both veterans with solid hard-court pedigrees. While neither should pose a major threat, an early test of her consistency is always possible.
- Likely Fourth Round: Here’s where things get controversial. Gauff could face Maria Timofeeva or an out-of-form Caroline Garcia. While Garcia was once a top-five player, her current form suggests she wouldn’t pose a major challenge. Meanwhile, Timofeeva is talented but unproven at this level. Compared to Świątek’s fourth-round opponents, this feels like a significantly easier matchup.
- Quarterfinals: This is where the potential for drama increases. A projected showdown with Jessica Pegula, her doubles partner and compatriot, could be on the cards. However, Pegula’s inconsistency in high-pressure singles matches suggests Gauff would enter as the clear favorite.
- Semifinals: Gauff is likely to meet either Markéta Vondroušová or Ons Jabeur, both of whom present different kinds of challenges. Vondroušová’s unpredictable shot-making and Jabeur’s crafty game could trouble Gauff, but neither possesses the relentless baseline power that typically disrupts her rhythm.
Compared to Świątek’s projected route, Gauff’s draw raises some questions. While she might still need to face a big hitter like Sabalenka or Rybakina in the final, the potential roadblocks leading up to that stage appear carefully placed to ensure a deep run while maintaining the illusion of unpredictability.
Is the Draw Rigged? The Case for and Against
It’s no secret that tournaments want marquee finals to drive ratings and ticket sales, and Indian Wells is no different. A Świątek-Gauff final would be a dream scenario for organizers and broadcasters alike, given their rivalry and status as the two most marketable young stars in women’s tennis.
- The Case For Rigging: The relative difficulty of Świątek’s draw compared to Gauff’s raises eyebrows. While Świątek faces former Grand Slam champions and power hitters early, Gauff’s major threats don’t arrive until much later in the tournament. This suggests an attempt to ensure both stars have a high probability of meeting in the final.
- The Case Against Rigging: Tennis draws are conducted randomly within the confines of seeding rules. While some paths may appear easier than others, this could be a coincidence rather than manipulation. Additionally, unexpected upsets could alter the projected paths, meaning a seemingly favorable draw may not play out as expected.
Final Thoughts: A Dream Final in the Making?
Whether or not the draw was manipulated, one thing is certain—Świątek and Gauff are on a collision course for one of the most anticipated finals in recent memory. If both navigate their respective paths successfully, it would set the stage for a thrilling showdown between the world’s top-ranked player and one of its most electrifying rising stars.
Rigged or not, the excitement is undeniable. The real question is: Can either player survive their potential landmines to deliver the match everyone wants to see?