Imagine staring down a schedule so ruthless it makes a gauntlet look like a warm-up jog. That’s exactly what Brent Venables and the Oklahoma Sooners are facing in 2025. The SEC didn’t exactly roll out the red carpet for the Sooners in their debut season, and after limping to a 6-7 record in 2024, the message is clear: There ain’t no freebies in this conference. Now, with a schedule so brutal it might as well be hand-delivered by the Grim Reaper, Venables’ $44.8 million future is looking shakier than a freshman kicker in overtime.
Andy Staples and Ari Wasserman from On3recently took to their podcast to break it down, and let’s just say, their reaction was far from optimistic. “Michigan comes to town in Week Two, then Auburn,” Staples laid it out bluntly. “The second half of the season? At South Carolina, Ole Miss, at Tennessee, at Alabama, Missouri, LSU. If things are going bad, you could lose all six of those games. Oh my God, what are they supposed to do with this?” It’s clear: If the Sooners aren’t ready for war, they might not make it out alive.
Let’s break it down. Oklahoma’s home slate is no joke — Michigan, Auburn, Missouri, and LSU are all pulling up to Norman. But it’s the road games that make this schedule borderline criminal. The Sooners have to play South Carolina, Tennessee, and Alabama — all on the road. And let’s not forget about the annual Texas showdown in Dallas, because, you know, life wasn’t hard enough already.
The real nightmare? That back half of the season. After Texas, Oklahoma’s schedule turns into a horror movie — South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Alabama, Missouri, and LSU all back-to-back. No breaks. No breathers. Just straight-up war every Saturday. If the Sooners don’t come correct, they could finna lose all six of those games.
Vegas already knows what’s up — Oklahoma’s projected win total is 6.3, with a 0.771 strength of schedule rating – making it one of the hardest slates in the country. Coach Venables has no excuses now. He’s got a new OC, a revamped O-line, and a new quarterback in John Mateer. If the Sooners still crash and burn, that $44.8 million buyout might start looking like a necessary evil. If you thought 6-7 was bad, this upcoming season might make that look like the good old days. The SEC doesn’t do mercy, and Oklahoma is about to get a firsthand lesson in that reality. Staples didn’t mince words: “Oklahoma has the hardest schedule. Can Brent Venables survive this? That’s the question.”
Brent Venables’ $44.8M hot seat looking real bad
Here’s the deal — Oklahoma fans don’t do losing seasons. This ain’t some mid-tier program where 6-7 gets you a pat on the back and a ‘better luck next year’. No, the expectations in Norman are sky-high, and right now, Venables is coming up short. The problem? There are no excuses left. The O-line got a facelift. The play-calling is now in the hands of Ben Arbuckle. And they went out and got John Mateer at quarterback — a clear upgrade. But even if everything clicks, they’re still walking into a schedule that looks more like a punishment than an opportunity.
And let’s talk about Venables himself. He’s rolling into year four with nothing concrete to show for it. The defense? Respectable. The offense? A crime against football. Now, with defensive coordinator Zac Alley packing his bags for West Virginia, Venables is taking over play-calling duties. Bold move, but does it fix the bigger problem? Because no matter how good the defense is, the Sooners still have to put points on the board. And in this SEC meat grinder, that’s easier said than done.
The margin for error is nonexistent. If Oklahoma stumbles out the gate, if they take a beating early, the calls for Venables’ job are going to hit eardrum-bursting levels. PFF’s Dalton Wasserman put it bluntly: “I think if Oklahoma goes 8-4 next year, they’d had a good year.” And that’s where we’re at. In a program built on championships, 8-4 would be considered a success. But let’s be real: Would the fanbase see it that way? Would the boosters? Would the administration that wrote that $44.8 million check? Doubt it.
So here we are. The Sooners are low-key backed into a corner, Venables is coaching for his job, and the SEC isn’t cutting any slack. Their road ahead is brutal, but there’s no turning back now. The only question left is simple: Can Brent Venables survive this, or is this the beginning of the end? Because if 2025 goes the way most analysts predict, Oklahoma might be in the market for a new head coach before Christmas.